Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Terciles for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls
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Product list for Blencoe Creek at Blencoe Falls
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|Range (GL)||Percentage of Streamflow Forecast (%)|
|Low flow||< 16.8||27.640|
|Near median flow||16.8 - 31.8||43.440|
|High flow||> 31.8||28.920|
About the tercile product
- The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
- The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
- The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
- The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
- The observed streamflow data is represented by a pink dotted line on both the graphs, Terciles applied to forecast distribution and Terciles from historical data.
- To define the terciles the historical data is arranged in order from lowest to highest and partitioned into three groups. The lowest third of the data values are defined as the lowest tercile, the middle third of the values are the middle tercile and the upper third are the upper tercile.
- The values that partition the historical data into terciles are applied to the forecast distribution. The percentage of the forecast that is in each tercile is then displayed as a pie chart.
- The terciles are labelled such that forecasts with the greatest probability of being in the lower third of the distribution are defined as low flow, those in the middle third of the distribution are defined as near median flow and those in the upper third of the distribution are defined as high flow.
- The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
- Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.
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