Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley( Apr 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1026.07747.389
2018.05729.307
3013.70720.376
4010.56414.165
508.42810.191
606.5857.092
705.1145.005
803.6673.334
902.2291.882

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
164.068105.085
249.44985.964
344.02578.554
439.11172.523
536.02068.101
633.53262.032
731.15057.833
829.36953.969
927.28050.183
1026.07747.389
1124.79445.108
1223.93642.632
1323.03140.785
1422.08238.964
1521.14036.999
1620.41835.467
1719.79333.713
1819.24631.967
1918.64130.465
2018.05729.307
2117.59028.208
2217.00027.010
2316.47026.189
2415.98925.015
2515.65824.294
2615.25823.683
2714.84022.769
2814.41622.058
2914.09721.247
3013.70720.376
3113.25619.597
3212.92318.825
3312.63518.228
3412.38117.652
3512.01216.879
3611.69216.276
3711.34015.688
3811.10915.152
3910.85514.721
4010.56414.165
4110.32213.640
4210.09013.260
439.82912.944
449.58612.519
459.38412.143
469.19711.732
478.98411.367
488.81610.900
498.63110.556
508.42810.191
518.1979.866
528.0069.548
537.8389.184
547.6418.844
557.4368.507
567.2998.110
577.0777.880
586.8987.652
596.7467.407
606.5857.092
616.3886.786
626.2636.568
636.1226.368
645.9446.127
655.7785.944
665.6375.760
675.5065.591
685.3825.375
695.2345.158
705.1145.005
714.9574.800
724.8074.639
734.6664.454
744.5294.293
754.3864.117
764.2463.963
774.0933.800
783.9763.651
793.8293.512
803.6673.334
813.5163.171
823.3863.020
833.2462.852
843.0762.715
852.9412.599
862.7882.447
872.6642.294
882.5412.174
892.3382.033
902.2291.882
912.0881.746
921.9321.590
931.7681.430
941.5611.245
951.3711.118
961.1520.978
970.9220.786
980.6740.632
990.3250.467


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence