Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
105.1538.574
202.9515.258
301.8763.232
401.2351.735
500.8260.912
600.5480.437
700.3420.214
800.1930.093
900.0840.029

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
112.37217.035
210.36414.344
38.93513.286
47.99812.415
57.33911.769
66.81710.866
76.37810.229
85.9969.630
95.6269.029
105.1538.574
114.8398.195
124.6157.773
134.3427.451
144.0597.127
153.7736.769
163.6276.482
173.4336.146
183.2715.802
193.1215.498
202.9515.258
212.8055.025
222.6624.767
232.5164.586
242.4214.323
252.3054.158
262.2064.018
272.1253.804
282.0453.636
291.9623.442
301.8763.232
311.7833.043
321.7162.854
331.6302.708
341.5532.567
351.4932.379
361.4492.233
371.3922.091
381.3271.964
391.2781.863
401.2351.735
411.1831.616
421.1321.531
431.0891.462
441.0461.370
451.0021.292
460.9611.207
470.9251.134
480.8881.044
490.8570.979
500.8260.912
510.8000.855
520.7770.800
530.7470.739
540.7140.685
550.6820.633
560.6500.574
570.6210.541
580.5970.510
590.5720.477
600.5480.437
610.5230.399
620.4980.373
630.4790.350
640.4580.324
650.4380.304
660.4160.285
670.3970.268
680.3820.247
690.3580.227
700.3420.214
710.3280.196
720.3130.183
730.2990.168
740.2830.156
750.2670.143
760.2500.133
770.2370.122
780.2230.112
790.2110.104
800.1930.093
810.1820.084
820.1700.076
830.1570.068
840.1460.061
850.1320.056
860.1220.049
870.1120.043
880.1000.039
890.0910.034
900.0840.029
910.0740.025
920.0640.020
930.0560.017
940.0460.012
950.0390.010
960.0310.008
970.0200.005
980.0120.003
990.0030.002


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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