Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jan  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10350.493
20240.689
30175.643
40124.025
5088.343
6059.758
7040.643
8025.791
9013.542

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1641.902
2548.661
3512.088
4482.006
5459.713
6428.674
7406.819
8386.357
9365.897
10350.493
11337.687
12323.522
13312.757
14301.954
15290.063
16280.615
17269.579
18258.341
19248.461
20240.689
21233.195
22224.876
23219.078
24210.658
25205.404
26200.897
27194.065
28188.672
29182.443
30175.643
31169.478
32163.276
33158.427
34153.690
35147.264
36142.194
37137.197
38132.598
39128.866
40124.025
41119.417
42116.052
43113.250
44109.451
45106.086
46102.378
4799.069
4894.831
4991.684
5088.343
5185.366
5282.441
5379.088
5475.951
5572.839
5669.163
5767.040
5864.934
5962.665
6059.758
6156.936
6254.925
6353.086
6450.876
6549.195
6647.510
6745.967
6843.999
6942.029
7040.643
7138.791
7237.343
7335.685
7434.239
7532.675
7631.313
7729.865
7828.562
7927.343
8025.791
8124.376
8223.070
8321.634
8420.469
8519.485
8618.201
8716.923
8815.929
8914.775
9013.542
9112.438
9211.192
939.932
948.491
957.521
966.467
975.052
983.948
992.800


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence