Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



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Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jan 2011 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10524.709350.493
20440.442240.689
30376.383175.643
40323.675124.025
50274.70788.343
60231.54059.758
70184.97240.643
80136.09225.791
9078.32713.542

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1746.735641.902
2681.115548.661
3642.420512.088
4614.445482.006
5596.090459.713
6580.916428.674
7566.131406.819
8550.936386.357
9538.667365.897
10524.709350.493
11514.451337.687
12505.060323.522
13495.026312.757
14487.575301.954
15478.793290.063
16470.665280.615
17460.485269.579
18452.433258.341
19447.829248.461
20440.442240.689
21434.205233.195
22427.016224.876
23419.377219.078
24412.308210.658
25406.191205.404
26399.784200.897
27392.838194.065
28387.156188.672
29381.873182.443
30376.383175.643
31370.815169.478
32365.172163.276
33359.519158.427
34354.252153.690
35348.886147.264
36344.242142.194
37338.847137.197
38332.808132.598
39327.631128.866
40323.675124.025
41318.431119.417
42314.211116.052
43309.398113.250
44304.886109.451
45299.944106.086
46295.102102.378
47290.01899.069
48284.98094.831
49279.45891.684
50274.70788.343
51271.54885.366
52266.93182.441
53262.00079.088
54256.75975.951
55252.64872.839
56247.80369.163
57243.49367.040
58240.14864.934
59235.48062.665
60231.54059.758
61227.83856.936
62222.55754.925
63217.66653.086
64213.97250.876
65209.24449.195
66203.98747.510
67199.79245.967
68195.25643.999
69190.16442.029
70184.97240.643
71180.16238.791
72175.01137.343
73170.26235.685
74165.23134.239
75160.37032.675
76155.22031.313
77150.63629.865
78144.72128.562
79140.92627.343
80136.09225.791
81129.11224.376
82122.70223.070
83117.33221.634
84112.00320.469
85107.76319.485
86102.20718.201
8797.08216.923
8891.60815.929
8984.97814.775
9078.32713.542
9174.27712.438
9268.43711.192
9362.6969.932
9456.0358.491
9549.5237.521
9643.3226.467
9736.5655.052
9828.6323.948
9918.0572.800


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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