Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



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Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jan 2012 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10370.029350.493
20291.822240.689
30235.445175.643
40189.622124.025
50149.48088.343
60117.27659.758
7087.44340.643
8058.19825.791
9032.02113.542

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1571.677641.902
2511.269548.661
3485.474512.088
4459.006482.006
5436.681459.713
6417.253428.674
7408.834406.819
8392.718386.357
9378.266365.897
10370.029350.493
11359.730337.687
12350.031323.522
13341.977312.757
14334.301301.954
15327.519290.063
16319.484280.615
17311.220269.579
18303.670258.341
19297.885248.461
20291.822240.689
21286.176233.195
22279.547224.876
23273.644219.078
24267.467210.658
25261.191205.404
26255.258200.897
27250.176194.065
28245.545188.672
29240.609182.443
30235.445175.643
31230.701169.478
32225.883163.276
33222.035158.427
34216.746153.690
35211.802147.264
36206.388142.194
37202.280137.197
38197.683132.598
39193.691128.866
40189.622124.025
41185.717119.417
42181.065116.052
43176.877113.250
44172.729109.451
45169.005106.086
46165.464102.378
47161.11599.069
48157.45894.831
49153.63591.684
50149.48088.343
51146.38885.366
52143.24982.441
53139.86479.088
54135.46575.951
55132.67672.839
56129.87069.163
57126.34467.040
58123.84664.934
59120.79862.665
60117.27659.758
61114.38256.936
62111.28754.925
63107.41953.086
64104.29950.876
65100.94549.195
6698.45147.510
6795.10545.967
6892.65243.999
6989.73842.029
7087.44340.643
7184.30638.791
7281.58137.343
7378.19135.685
7475.69834.239
7573.01332.675
7670.07531.313
7767.66029.865
7864.46428.562
7961.34327.343
8058.19825.791
8155.96324.376
8253.60123.070
8350.36121.634
8447.88820.469
8545.33519.485
8642.41418.201
8739.31816.923
8836.80515.929
8934.75714.775
9032.02113.542
9129.49112.438
9227.12511.192
9324.2699.932
9421.5538.491
9518.6147.521
9615.2336.467
9712.4925.052
989.1393.948
995.3882.800


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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