Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



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Exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jan 2013 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10297.134350.493
20219.912240.689
30167.345175.643
40127.489124.025
5097.89788.343
6072.09959.758
7051.41140.643
8033.37025.791
9018.02113.542

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1503.168641.902
2446.684548.661
3406.591512.088
4380.860482.006
5360.640459.713
6344.835428.674
7329.680406.819
8317.204386.357
9305.273365.897
10297.134350.493
11287.980337.687
12277.457323.522
13268.365312.757
14260.760301.954
15253.672290.063
16245.703280.615
17238.688269.579
18232.710258.341
19226.607248.461
20219.912240.689
21214.240233.195
22207.953224.876
23201.489219.078
24196.838210.658
25191.347205.404
26186.040200.897
27180.522194.065
28176.150188.672
29172.550182.443
30167.345175.643
31162.160169.478
32158.540163.276
33153.942158.427
34150.302153.690
35146.509147.264
36143.057142.194
37139.601137.197
38135.508132.598
39132.254128.866
40127.489124.025
41124.444119.417
42121.261116.052
43117.522113.250
44114.623109.451
45112.607106.086
46109.076102.378
47106.21999.069
48103.22194.831
49101.08491.684
5097.89788.343
5194.98385.366
5293.10382.441
5390.03879.088
5487.00875.951
5584.34172.839
5681.90269.163
5779.64567.040
5877.65264.934
5974.95262.665
6072.09959.758
6169.68856.936
6267.24154.925
6365.24753.086
6462.87850.876
6560.85149.195
6658.76447.510
6756.90945.967
6854.80043.999
6953.03542.029
7051.41140.643
7149.43538.791
7247.44537.343
7345.62335.685
7444.12134.239
7542.42632.675
7640.96431.313
7738.91829.865
7837.10128.562
7935.60727.343
8033.37025.791
8131.55424.376
8230.10123.070
8328.88021.634
8427.60820.469
8525.99619.485
8624.15518.201
8722.75016.923
8821.12915.929
8919.34814.775
9018.02113.542
9116.50812.438
9214.84611.192
9313.2089.932
9411.5888.491
959.7467.521
968.2336.467
976.5165.052
984.5753.948
991.9122.800


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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