Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.2480.412
Median2.1924.132
Mean6.48910.236
75% Quartile10.06816.611
Interquartile Range9.82116.199

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
137.17953.593
231.42145.928
329.11342.916
427.16640.435
525.38938.592
623.52436.021
722.41434.204
821.47732.496
920.33430.781
1019.45729.483
1118.53628.399
1217.83427.193
1317.11526.271
1416.42425.340
1515.65624.309
1615.09923.483
1714.29522.511
1813.63921.510
1913.14220.622
2012.53819.915
2111.98819.228
2211.46418.456
2311.10617.913
2410.57917.115
2510.07316.612
269.64616.176
279.18115.508
288.72814.974
298.30014.351
307.83213.660
317.49213.025
327.09212.377
336.63411.864
346.27711.356
355.91410.660
365.58610.103
375.1669.549
384.8829.034
394.6228.614
404.3088.066
414.0897.544
423.8277.162
433.5836.844
443.3776.415
453.1416.038
462.9365.626
472.7135.263
482.5454.807
492.3614.476
502.1924.132
512.0493.835
521.9303.550
531.7693.235
541.6412.953
551.5152.684
561.4152.383
571.2942.217
581.1782.059
591.0891.896
601.0081.697
610.9411.516
620.8831.393
630.8091.287
640.7311.165
650.6691.076
660.6180.992
670.5740.918
680.5210.828
690.4620.744
700.4090.688
710.3730.617
720.3330.564
730.3020.507
740.2730.460
750.2480.412
760.2190.373
770.1930.334
780.1700.301
790.1520.271
800.1330.236
810.1120.207
820.0960.182
830.0800.156
840.0670.137
850.0550.121
860.0410.103
870.0300.086
880.0230.075
890.0160.062
900.0090.050
910.0020.040
920.0000.030
930.0000.022
940.0000.014
950.0000.009
960.0000.005
970.0000.001
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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