Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.4224.117
Median11.95210.191
Mean16.84718.543
75% Quartile21.91124.294
Interquartile Range15.48820.177

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
180.324105.085
263.02385.964
356.47578.554
451.52772.523
547.54868.101
644.47862.032
741.66457.833
839.02553.969
937.14950.183
1035.61947.389
1134.18545.108
1232.74942.632
1331.48140.785
1430.04338.964
1528.98236.999
1628.08935.467
1727.18833.713
1826.52931.967
1925.73630.465
2025.15029.307
2124.36228.208
2223.62027.010
2323.00126.189
2422.40525.015
2521.91724.294
2621.34123.683
2720.71722.769
2820.27522.058
2919.68821.247
3019.19220.376
3118.72019.597
3218.29018.825
3317.81318.228
3417.35117.652
3516.91916.879
3616.45916.276
3716.14915.688
3815.80815.152
3915.37814.721
4015.01514.165
4114.68513.640
4214.31413.260
4314.00512.944
4413.72612.519
4513.38812.143
4613.05311.732
4712.82311.367
4812.57410.900
4912.28010.556
5011.95210.191
5111.7419.866
5211.5419.548
5311.2729.184
5411.0468.844
5510.7668.507
5610.4978.110
5710.2227.880
5810.0297.652
599.6997.407
609.4657.092
619.2796.786
629.0926.568
638.8506.368
648.6136.127
658.4015.944
668.2055.760
678.0155.591
687.8395.375
697.6585.158
707.4385.005
717.1914.800
727.0064.639
736.8114.454
746.5924.293
756.4174.117
766.2843.963
776.0863.800
785.8743.651
795.6363.512
805.4373.334
815.2363.171
825.0653.020
834.8482.852
844.6372.715
854.4152.599
864.2462.447
874.0572.294
883.8212.174
893.6172.033
903.4011.882
913.2101.746
923.0121.590
932.7001.430
942.4681.245
952.2341.118
961.9140.978
971.5530.786
981.2580.632
990.7850.467


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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