Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


Return to catchment list
Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


Download forecast data
Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile2.9752.417
Median4.1324.130
Mean4.4465.086
75% Quartile5.5736.635
Interquartile Range2.5984.218

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.97419.992
29.82916.062
39.16614.724
48.70413.699
58.31312.980
68.03412.034
77.75111.403
87.51610.838
97.32010.295
107.0989.900
116.9609.580
126.8489.235
136.7118.979
146.5638.727
156.4808.454
166.3738.241
176.2627.996
186.1617.750
196.0607.537
205.9647.372
215.8747.213
225.8027.039
235.7236.918
245.6526.743
255.5746.635
265.5036.542
275.4356.402
285.3386.291
295.2716.164
305.2156.024
315.1485.898
325.0795.771
335.0155.671
344.9645.573
354.9175.439
364.8625.333
374.8085.228
384.7465.131
394.6875.051
404.6354.946
414.5794.846
424.5084.772
434.4694.710
444.4224.625
454.3774.548
464.3144.463
474.2734.387
484.2304.287
494.1804.211
504.1324.130
514.0894.056
524.0323.983
533.9893.897
543.9343.815
553.8953.733
563.8373.633
573.7913.574
583.7403.514
593.6903.449
603.6513.363
613.6023.278
623.5483.216
633.5173.158
643.4713.087
653.4303.032
663.3942.975
673.3482.922
683.3012.854
693.2692.783
703.2222.732
713.1712.662
723.1212.606
733.0682.541
743.0172.482
752.9752.417
762.9372.358
772.8802.294
782.8252.235
792.7752.179
802.7142.104
812.6652.033
822.5881.966
832.5301.889
842.4841.824
852.4341.768
862.3651.691
872.3051.611
882.2261.547
892.1601.468
902.0851.380
912.0011.297
921.9201.197
931.8441.089
941.7570.953
951.6270.853
961.4830.735
971.3300.555
981.1440.391
990.9190.185


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence