Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.5601.379
Median2.4542.283
Mean2.5852.630
75% Quartile3.4713.484
Interquartile Range1.9102.105

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.3058.756
25.7807.339
35.4666.832
45.2296.441
55.0446.152
64.8485.783
74.7455.531
84.6035.299
94.4985.075
104.3994.911
114.2914.777
124.2004.632
134.1344.522
144.0724.413
154.0044.294
163.9434.203
173.8694.094
183.8183.985
193.7783.891
203.7243.818
213.6573.747
223.6043.666
233.5593.614
243.5073.534
253.4713.485
263.4213.442
273.3723.376
283.3303.324
293.2713.267
303.2283.201
313.1893.143
323.1383.081
333.1013.034
343.0652.990
353.0252.925
362.9782.875
372.9462.824
382.9062.778
392.8632.739
402.8332.688
412.7922.639
422.7572.603
432.7132.572
442.6742.530
452.6372.493
462.5972.450
472.5642.412
482.5272.362
492.4892.324
502.4542.283
512.4172.246
522.3832.209
532.3422.164
542.3172.124
552.2842.079
562.2432.029
572.2051.999
582.1711.967
592.1381.934
602.1111.888
612.0701.844
622.0361.811
632.0001.780
641.9641.743
651.9351.714
661.9071.684
671.8661.655
681.8281.618
691.7931.580
701.7611.552
711.7181.514
721.6861.484
731.6421.447
741.6041.415
751.5601.379
761.5231.346
771.4921.310
781.4451.277
791.4061.245
801.3701.203
811.3271.163
821.2831.124
831.2411.080
841.1891.042
851.1351.009
861.0900.964
871.0470.917
880.9910.879
890.9470.832
900.8900.779
910.8350.729
920.7710.668
930.6790.601
940.6050.516
950.5240.453
960.4420.377
970.3300.259
980.2540.149
990.1510.007


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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