Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



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Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.8483.054
Median9.2996.276
Mean10.9159.750
75% Quartile14.17712.577
Interquartile Range8.3299.523

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.67951.107
230.09841.033
328.10037.257
426.00234.250
524.41532.088
623.60829.182
722.48627.216
821.63225.438
920.78423.726
1020.27822.481
1119.59121.474
1219.07920.392
1318.54319.592
1418.00918.807
1517.60917.965
1617.13817.312
1716.67716.566
1816.34115.826
1916.01215.191
2015.67514.701
2115.39114.236
2215.04513.729
2314.72513.381
2414.41612.883
2514.17912.577
2613.88112.316
2713.71111.926
2813.41911.621
2913.14111.273
3012.91710.897
3112.70910.559
3212.45610.223
3312.2909.962
3412.0829.708
3511.9109.367
3611.6559.099
3711.4798.836
3811.3088.594
3911.1118.399
4010.9498.146
4110.7517.906
4210.5827.730
4310.3787.584
4410.2537.386
4510.0747.210
469.9187.016
479.7616.842
489.5996.619
499.4606.453
509.2996.276
519.1356.118
528.9885.961
538.8375.781
548.6975.611
558.5625.441
568.4045.239
578.2785.121
588.1145.004
597.9574.876
607.8294.711
617.6864.549
627.5614.433
637.4434.325
647.3434.195
657.2204.095
667.0853.994
676.9373.900
686.8313.779
696.7013.657
706.6073.570
716.4433.453
726.3243.360
736.1623.253
745.9963.158
755.8473.053
765.7152.962
775.6042.863
785.4462.772
795.2792.687
805.1442.576
815.0012.473
824.8772.377
834.7682.269
844.6252.180
854.4802.103
864.3022.001
874.1631.898
884.0001.816
893.8421.718
903.6501.611
913.4891.513
923.3121.399
933.0711.279
942.8451.135
952.6371.035
962.4170.920
972.1190.757
981.7990.619
991.3330.462


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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