Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



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Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.0742.417
Median5.4884.130
Mean5.8625.086
75% Quartile7.2346.635
Interquartile Range3.1604.218

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.78819.992
212.48416.062
311.54414.724
410.98213.699
510.67212.980
610.21512.034
79.89811.403
89.59710.838
99.33510.295
109.1539.900
118.9689.580
128.7819.235
138.6518.979
148.5168.727
158.3698.454
168.2268.241
178.0697.996
187.9457.750
197.8217.537
207.6937.372
217.5977.213
227.5117.039
237.4246.918
247.3316.743
257.2356.635
267.1496.542
277.0476.402
286.9686.291
296.9016.164
306.8246.024
316.7305.898
326.6545.771
336.5845.671
346.5115.573
356.4355.439
366.3755.333
376.3055.228
386.2365.131
396.1485.051
406.0704.946
416.0124.846
425.9584.772
435.9014.710
445.8314.625
455.7894.548
465.7244.463
475.6424.387
485.5864.287
495.5454.211
505.4884.130
515.4464.056
525.3793.983
535.3123.897
545.2583.815
555.1723.733
565.1193.633
575.0703.574
585.0093.514
594.9363.449
604.8853.363
614.8383.278
624.7843.216
634.7403.158
644.6773.087
654.6253.032
664.5762.975
674.5182.922
684.4742.854
694.4212.783
704.3522.732
714.2842.662
724.2292.606
734.1852.541
744.1342.482
754.0732.417
764.0162.358
773.9532.294
783.8902.235
793.8132.179
803.7452.104
813.6732.033
823.5911.966
833.5171.889
843.4451.824
853.3841.768
863.3291.691
873.2331.611
883.1431.547
893.0541.468
902.9641.380
912.8841.297
922.7841.197
932.6581.089
942.5520.953
952.4260.853
962.2360.735
972.0320.555
981.8350.391
991.5310.185


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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