Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


  • Jan

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Probability distribution for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jan 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile43.58532.678
Median96.92488.343
Mean130.123141.247
75% Quartile189.399205.401
Interquartile Range145.814172.724

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1481.947641.902
2425.910548.661
3398.771512.088
4378.029482.006
5354.910459.713
6336.197428.674
7324.456406.819
8310.312386.357
9300.750365.897
10289.178350.493
11278.945337.687
12267.990323.522
13261.448312.757
14255.157301.954
15247.633290.063
16240.041280.615
17234.367269.579
18228.251258.341
19223.570248.461
20216.316240.689
21211.006233.195
22205.452224.876
23198.973219.078
24194.324210.658
25189.437205.404
26184.235200.897
27179.687194.065
28175.592188.672
29169.890182.443
30165.526175.643
31162.393169.478
32157.785163.276
33154.115158.427
34150.699153.690
35147.135147.264
36142.886142.194
37138.449137.197
38134.747132.598
39130.150128.866
40127.114124.025
41124.112119.417
42120.767116.052
43117.198113.250
44114.207109.451
45111.303106.086
46108.697102.378
47105.59599.069
48102.30194.831
4999.32191.684
5096.92488.343
5193.99485.366
5291.19082.441
5388.97279.088
5486.80175.951
5584.46072.839
5682.30169.163
5780.30867.040
5878.08364.934
5975.61462.665
6073.27659.758
6171.42956.936
6269.05354.925
6366.26553.086
6463.80450.876
6561.92349.195
6660.00347.510
6758.36445.967
6856.54543.999
6954.50542.029
7052.70640.643
7150.35638.791
7248.67037.343
7346.91735.685
7445.09334.239
7543.57132.675
7641.52031.313
7739.66129.865
7837.78928.562
7935.87827.343
8034.05225.791
8132.56224.376
8230.86323.070
8329.43921.634
8427.53920.469
8525.64519.485
8624.11618.201
8722.72516.923
8821.10715.929
8919.54214.775
9017.80013.542
9116.40712.438
9215.01311.192
9313.2449.932
9411.4108.491
959.6357.521
967.5486.467
975.6205.052
983.9033.948
991.4462.800


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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