Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1966) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2006) (GL)
May5.5273.8033.1310.0846.86435.856
May-Jun8.3847.4686.8380.1098.94539.804
May-Jul9.8209.2579.7820.40210.66543.873

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.33822.481
2010.08014.701
308.23210.897
406.7918.146
505.7286.276
604.7814.711
703.8923.570
802.9772.576
902.0461.611

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
124.23051.107
220.65541.033
318.78937.257
417.53834.250
516.62132.088
615.75829.182
715.13427.216
814.48925.438
913.90223.726
1013.33822.481
1112.87221.474
1212.39020.392
1312.08519.592
1411.79718.807
1511.47717.965
1611.17017.312
1710.85516.566
1810.59415.826
1910.29715.191
2010.08014.701
219.82014.236
229.61913.729
239.44913.381
249.25612.883
259.09712.577
268.91412.316
278.73711.926
288.56811.621
298.41811.273
308.23210.897
318.05110.559
327.89010.223
337.7579.962
347.6239.708
357.4509.367
367.3149.099
377.1848.836
387.0328.594
396.9078.399
406.7918.146
416.6727.906
426.5587.730
436.4347.584
446.3337.386
456.2217.210
466.1317.016
476.0076.842
485.9016.619
495.8076.453
505.7286.276
515.6196.118
525.5085.961
535.4165.781
545.3185.611
555.2355.441
565.1155.239
575.0305.121
584.9505.004
594.8754.876
604.7814.711
614.7094.549
624.6074.433
634.5004.325
644.4134.195
654.3374.095
664.2483.994
674.1623.900
684.0683.779
693.9803.657
703.8923.570
713.7973.453
723.7393.360
733.6413.253
743.5453.158
753.4473.053
763.3552.962
773.2662.863
783.1792.772
793.0922.687
802.9772.576
812.8802.473
822.7932.377
832.7132.269
842.6192.180
852.5152.103
862.4442.001
872.3481.898
882.2521.816
892.1451.718
902.0461.611
911.9141.513
921.7621.399
931.6401.279
941.5031.135
951.3221.035
961.1680.920
970.9760.757
980.7550.619
990.5220.462


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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