Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Sep0.3620.1500.5640.0010.3320.404
Sep-Oct0.5710.1550.5960.0010.5740.462
Sep-Nov2.9320.1554.7460.0012.53216.184

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
106.9098.574
204.3065.258
302.8173.232
401.9031.735
501.3090.912
600.8800.437
700.5640.214
800.3300.093
900.1450.029

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.63317.035
212.33014.344
310.89413.286
49.88212.415
59.25411.769
68.73010.866
78.23610.229
87.7559.630
97.3589.029
106.9098.574
116.4698.195
126.1807.773
135.8877.451
145.5967.127
155.3496.769
165.0816.482
174.8766.146
184.6625.802
194.4795.498
204.3065.258
214.1165.025
223.9274.767
233.7654.586
243.6214.323
253.4844.158
263.3454.018
273.1933.804
283.0533.636
292.9473.442
302.8173.232
312.6943.043
322.5942.854
332.4922.708
342.3952.567
352.2912.379
362.1922.233
372.1232.091
382.0391.964
391.9671.863
401.9031.735
411.8341.616
421.7591.531
431.7031.462
441.6361.370
451.5791.292
461.5211.207
471.4581.134
481.4031.044
491.3510.979
501.3090.912
511.2680.855
521.2200.800
531.1700.739
541.1290.685
551.0890.633
561.0430.574
570.9970.541
580.9520.510
590.9140.477
600.8800.437
610.8370.399
620.8030.373
630.7780.350
640.7490.324
650.7170.304
660.6870.285
670.6520.268
680.6150.247
690.5930.227
700.5640.214
710.5350.196
720.5060.183
730.4810.168
740.4570.156
750.4330.143
760.4110.133
770.3900.122
780.3670.112
790.3460.104
800.3300.093
810.3090.084
820.2880.076
830.2660.068
840.2470.061
850.2240.056
860.2080.049
870.1900.043
880.1750.039
890.1640.034
900.1450.029
910.1290.025
920.1130.020
930.1020.017
940.0890.012
950.0720.010
960.0610.008
970.0450.005
980.0280.003
990.0120.002


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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