Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct0.2090.0060.0320.0000.2420.578
Oct-Nov2.5690.0064.1810.0002.20015.018
Oct-Dec13.8740.0065.2640.00025.488184.359

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1022.26229.483
2015.30219.915
3010.45613.660
406.4538.066
503.5434.132
601.7201.697
700.7250.688
800.2430.236
900.0320.050

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
140.32253.593
234.54545.928
331.94642.916
430.22040.435
528.59738.592
626.47336.021
725.25234.204
824.31032.496
923.31230.781
1022.26229.483
1121.26628.399
1220.69327.193
1320.05126.271
1419.38825.340
1518.58624.309
1617.61623.483
1717.10322.511
1816.47121.510
1915.87120.622
2015.30219.915
2114.72019.228
2214.26418.456
2313.70717.913
2413.19417.115
2512.77916.612
2612.27116.176
2711.87415.508
2811.44214.974
2910.94714.351
3010.45613.660
319.98013.025
329.46312.377
339.07511.864
348.67211.356
358.20110.660
367.83610.103
377.5069.549
387.1269.034
396.7378.614
406.4538.066
416.0707.544
425.7677.162
435.3976.844
445.1516.415
454.8616.038
464.6665.626
474.3785.263
484.0554.807
493.7974.476
503.5434.132
513.3123.835
523.0943.550
532.8503.235
542.7112.953
552.5412.684
562.3652.383
572.2082.217
582.0132.059
591.8331.896
601.7201.697
611.5971.516
621.4731.393
631.3691.287
641.2451.165
651.1521.076
661.0540.992
670.9760.918
680.8800.828
690.7960.744
700.7250.688
710.6570.617
720.5980.564
730.5450.507
740.4910.460
750.4450.412
760.4000.373
770.3510.334
780.3120.301
790.2830.271
800.2430.236
810.2160.207
820.1920.182
830.1630.156
840.1410.137
850.1140.121
860.0950.103
870.0770.086
880.0590.075
890.0450.062
900.0320.050
910.0230.040
920.0130.030
930.0050.022
940.0000.014
950.0000.009
960.0000.005
970.0000.001
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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