Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (1992) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1973) (GL)
Nov2.3600.0004.1490.0001.95815.722
Nov-Dec13.6660.0005.2320.00025.24653.284
Nov-Jan49.9316.9085.2380.00071.068315.452

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10113.605
2060.510
3039.806
4026.310
5018.220
6012.016
707.942
804.628
901.839

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1375.172
2300.790
3254.139
4224.041
5187.044
6169.222
7148.985
8133.760
9121.310
10113.605
11104.986
1297.656
1392.673
1485.865
1581.122
1675.975
1770.671
1867.167
1963.571
2060.510
2157.604
2255.455
2352.225
2450.671
2549.139
2647.263
2745.171
2843.231
2941.464
3039.806
3138.014
3236.332
3335.021
3433.539
3532.082
3630.775
3729.641
3828.362
3927.401
4026.310
4125.422
4224.615
4323.868
4423.046
4522.230
4621.377
4720.521
4819.679
4919.001
5018.220
5117.667
5217.058
5316.228
5415.558
5514.777
5614.167
5713.680
5813.184
5912.668
6012.016
6111.486
6211.043
6310.584
6410.177
659.838
669.431
679.063
688.714
698.253
707.942
717.556
727.239
736.898
746.564
756.225
765.902
775.559
785.281
794.992
804.628
814.319
824.050
833.713
843.469
853.233
862.942
872.639
882.388
892.112
901.839
911.568
921.270
930.955
940.594
950.366
960.082
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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