Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Feb57.5857.21438.5721.50469.067116.340
Feb-Mar108.77034.14151.3143.003114.969414.750
Feb-Apr118.94438.492118.2073.007128.823436.425

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10174.155279.419
20124.135200.021
3093.204150.813
4069.866109.423
5051.63079.100
6037.01953.752
7025.58836.415
8015.90222.873
906.59011.789

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1308.861484.797
2273.831419.305
3250.861393.590
4228.852372.422
5214.917356.720
6204.985334.827
7195.742319.383
8188.005304.897
9180.369290.377
10174.155279.419
11168.920270.285
12162.605260.156
13156.848252.435
14151.634244.665
15147.448236.084
16143.023229.241
17138.641221.217
18133.256213.007
19128.452205.753
20124.135200.021
21120.196194.470
22117.054188.278
23113.340183.941
24109.838177.612
25107.220173.642
26104.733170.223
27101.925165.017
2898.956160.884
2996.587156.085
3093.204150.813
3191.405146.001
3287.956141.128
3384.990137.293
3482.953133.527
3580.709128.383
3678.706124.296
3776.246120.241
3874.200116.486
3972.561113.421
4069.866109.423
4167.493105.592
4265.423102.779
4363.335100.426
4461.65297.222
4559.71794.368
4658.04591.209
4756.49588.376
4854.75884.727
4953.24682.004
5051.63079.100
5150.04376.502
5248.49373.938
5347.02670.988
5445.59668.217
5544.32165.457
5642.87162.184
5741.12660.289
5839.69558.403
5938.18256.367
6037.01953.752
6135.57851.207
6234.40949.390
6333.14747.725
6432.19845.723
6531.02344.196
6629.93642.665
6728.82241.263
6827.68639.472
6926.65137.677
7025.58836.415
7124.35034.726
7223.22933.406
7322.07931.893
7421.31030.574
7520.48229.147
7619.54727.905
7718.59926.585
7817.62525.397
7916.74624.287
8015.90222.873
8115.00321.586
8214.12520.399
8313.11819.095
8412.19318.038
8511.21417.148
8610.10515.986
879.19114.832
888.31813.935
897.47412.896
906.59011.789
915.85510.800
925.0449.687
934.1218.564
943.2027.286
952.3326.429
961.2775.502
970.2994.264
980.0003.307
990.0002.320


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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