Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Mar 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Mar51.18526.92712.7421.50045.902298.410
Mar-Apr61.35931.27879.6351.50359.756320.085
Mar-May66.84034.40884.9132.34766.784346.195

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10170.647
20103.446
3070.129
4047.319
5033.080
6022.293
7015.252
809.801
905.260

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1377.953
2309.987
3283.527
4261.910
5246.007
6224.086
7208.849
8194.770
9180.912
10170.647
11162.239
12153.086
13146.243
14139.481
15132.169
16126.462
17119.917
18113.393
19107.780
20103.446
2199.337
2294.858
2391.786
2487.402
2584.712
2682.432
2779.026
2876.377
2973.364
3070.129
3167.245
3264.390
3362.188
3460.064
3557.224
3655.015
3752.865
3850.908
3949.337
4047.319
4145.419
4244.044
4342.907
4441.376
4540.030
4638.558
4737.253
4835.594
4934.371
5033.080
5131.935
5230.816
5329.540
5428.351
5527.178
5625.797
5725.003
5824.217
5923.372
6022.293
6121.248
6220.505
6319.826
6419.011
6518.392
6617.773
6717.206
6816.483
6915.760
7015.252
7114.573
7214.042
7313.434
7412.904
7512.330
7611.830
7711.299
7810.820
7910.372
809.801
819.280
828.798
838.268
847.837
857.473
866.997
876.522
886.151
895.721
905.260
914.846
924.377
933.901
943.354
952.984
962.580
972.034
981.604
991.152


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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