Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Jul1.4652.9442.4130.0201.8421.336
Jul-Aug2.3164.1563.9850.0222.8173.649
Jul-Sep2.6824.7204.3320.0243.1966.925

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.4984.911
206.6343.818
306.0293.201
405.5412.688
505.0932.283
604.6531.888
704.2231.552
803.6571.203
902.9710.779

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
110.5908.756
29.5427.339
39.0126.832
48.6016.441
58.3396.152
68.1695.783
77.9055.531
87.7555.299
97.6155.075
107.4984.911
117.3764.777
127.2794.632
137.2044.522
147.1234.413
157.0414.294
166.9414.203
176.8604.094
186.7913.985
196.7033.891
206.6343.818
216.5563.747
226.4913.666
236.4233.614
246.3603.534
256.3023.485
266.2503.442
276.1963.376
286.1433.324
296.0913.267
306.0293.201
315.9833.143
325.9243.081
335.8753.034
345.8252.990
355.7822.925
365.7372.875
375.6862.824
385.6472.778
395.5872.739
405.5412.688
415.4942.639
425.4492.603
435.4112.572
445.3692.530
455.3162.493
465.2732.450
475.2252.412
485.1902.362
495.1412.324
505.0932.283
515.0462.246
525.0062.209
534.9562.164
544.9122.124
554.8712.079
564.8272.029
574.7941.999
584.7491.967
594.6921.934
604.6531.888
614.6111.844
624.5681.811
634.5261.780
644.4821.743
654.4441.714
664.3991.684
674.3591.655
684.3181.618
694.2661.580
704.2231.552
714.1761.514
724.1081.484
734.0531.447
743.9911.415
753.9371.379
763.8891.346
773.8321.310
783.7681.277
793.7071.245
803.6571.203
813.5931.163
823.5331.124
833.4751.080
843.4201.042
853.3531.009
863.2880.964
873.2170.917
883.1360.879
893.0310.832
902.9710.779
912.8830.729
922.7770.668
932.6520.601
942.4670.516
952.3650.453
962.1920.377
971.9920.259
981.6900.149
991.3460.007


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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