Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley


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Product list for Wild River at Silver Valley



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Historical and exceedance probability for Wild River at Silver Valley ( Jan 2009 )

Historical Observations
Average (1962+) (GL)Last year (2008) (GL)Observed (2009) (GL)Minimum (1993) (GL)10 yr average (1999+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Jan31.86143.793118.7720.00018.662262.168
Jan-Feb86.670115.972311.6241.504105.879378.508
Jan-Mar138.166180.350325.3443.003154.532676.918

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10463.187350.493
20382.688240.689
30320.333175.643
40270.903124.025
50222.97388.343
60183.94359.758
70143.95840.643
80100.95525.791
9057.61013.542

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1669.403641.902
2612.739548.661
3577.146512.088
4551.170482.006
5530.413459.713
6520.190428.674
7504.536406.819
8488.516386.357
9474.797365.897
10463.187350.493
11453.277337.687
12444.888323.522
13434.723312.757
14427.690301.954
15419.464290.063
16411.070280.615
17403.051269.579
18395.465258.341
19388.442248.461
20382.688240.689
21375.666233.195
22368.698224.876
23362.370219.078
24356.265210.658
25350.232205.404
26344.415200.897
27337.721194.065
28331.721188.672
29325.594182.443
30320.333175.643
31315.067169.478
32309.316163.276
33304.137158.427
34299.895153.690
35294.785147.264
36289.410142.194
37285.220137.197
38280.269132.598
39275.347128.866
40270.903124.025
41265.967119.417
42261.663116.052
43255.847113.250
44251.487109.451
45246.125106.086
46242.031102.378
47237.34799.069
48231.71394.831
49227.83691.684
50222.97388.343
51219.33685.366
52215.93982.441
53211.01779.088
54207.65575.951
55204.65872.839
56200.68769.163
57196.73967.040
58192.75464.934
59188.63362.665
60183.94359.758
61180.17856.936
62175.98654.925
63171.76453.086
64167.74850.876
65163.49949.195
66159.57447.510
67156.08045.967
68152.28043.999
69148.45742.029
70143.95840.643
71139.98938.791
72134.85837.343
73131.24335.685
74125.90834.239
75121.71632.675
76118.19631.313
77113.84229.865
78109.39228.562
79105.64727.343
80100.95525.791
8196.50024.376
8291.67023.070
8388.23221.634
8483.11320.469
8579.58219.485
8675.63618.201
8771.21916.923
8866.80115.929
8962.41114.775
9057.61013.542
9152.46112.438
9248.38911.192
9344.7449.932
9440.5648.491
9534.7097.521
9630.5596.467
9725.2165.052
9819.7503.948
9912.7602.800


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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