Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.1266.938
203.1314.824
302.5633.775
402.1392.992
501.7832.436
601.4991.946
701.2541.574
800.9671.227
900.6660.865

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.05815.727
26.76312.392
36.15411.205
45.69510.299
55.2969.640
64.9808.812
74.6708.256
84.4547.754
94.2737.280
104.1266.938
114.0106.663
123.8746.371
133.7556.153
143.6645.937
153.5745.709
163.4555.534
173.3835.330
183.2865.128
193.2094.956
203.1314.824
213.0554.698
222.9984.555
232.9324.464
242.8784.326
252.8194.243
262.7674.172
272.7044.061
282.6503.975
292.6093.882
302.5633.775
312.5143.682
322.4673.585
332.4353.511
342.3913.442
352.3333.343
362.2993.268
372.2593.192
382.2183.123
392.1763.066
402.1392.992
412.1002.922
422.0562.871
432.0172.827
441.9862.769
451.9502.717
461.9122.658
471.8822.608
481.8472.541
491.8092.489
501.7832.436
511.7572.388
521.7222.341
531.6932.283
541.6622.233
551.6342.177
561.6102.116
571.5792.078
581.5522.041
591.5302.001
601.4991.946
611.4761.896
621.4521.858
631.4301.823
641.4011.781
651.3761.748
661.3501.715
671.3261.684
681.3031.644
691.2791.603
701.2541.574
711.2231.534
721.2011.502
731.1681.465
741.1371.432
751.1001.396
761.0731.364
771.0471.329
781.0221.297
790.9961.267
800.9671.227
810.9451.190
820.9161.155
830.8881.116
840.8621.083
850.8301.054
860.8011.016
870.7700.976
880.7410.945
890.7030.907
900.6660.865
910.6280.826
920.5910.781
930.5570.732
940.5200.672
950.4920.630
960.4490.580
970.3850.508
980.3170.444
990.2100.369


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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