Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.82311.105
206.3377.367
304.9225.609
403.9464.338
503.2013.459
602.6122.702
702.0732.138
801.5631.625
901.0371.102

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.87830.057
216.07322.141
314.27119.550
412.81317.647
511.51816.302
610.71914.656
710.20713.578
89.74212.624
99.21011.736
108.82311.105
118.51310.605
128.24010.076
137.9309.686
147.6119.303
157.3858.900
167.1468.593
176.8938.237
186.6717.888
196.4877.593
206.3377.367
216.1717.152
226.0406.910
235.8556.757
245.7016.525
255.5746.386
265.4016.266
275.2836.082
285.1625.939
295.0605.784
304.9225.609
314.8015.455
324.7165.296
334.5965.176
344.4965.064
354.3954.903
364.2944.782
374.1814.659
384.0824.548
394.0144.456
403.9464.338
413.8604.226
423.7854.145
433.6874.075
443.6193.983
453.5393.901
463.4873.808
473.4093.728
483.3443.623
493.2583.542
503.2013.459
513.1303.383
523.0673.310
533.0003.221
542.9453.142
552.8823.056
562.8342.962
572.7752.904
582.7112.846
592.6642.785
602.6122.702
612.5542.624
622.4962.568
632.4392.514
642.3772.451
652.3252.401
662.2742.350
672.2222.304
682.1752.243
692.1262.182
702.0732.138
712.0142.078
721.9592.031
731.9121.976
741.8621.927
751.8091.874
761.7641.826
771.7201.775
781.6611.728
791.6071.683
801.5631.625
811.5211.570
821.4671.519
831.4061.462
841.3571.414
851.2971.372
861.2531.317
871.2101.261
881.1511.216
891.0851.162
901.0371.102
910.9751.047
920.9140.982
930.8490.914
940.7800.831
950.7010.771
960.6110.703
970.4990.604
980.4060.519
990.2480.418


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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