Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.88012.446
206.4358.437
305.0316.525
404.0675.126
503.3444.145
602.7293.291
702.2072.645
801.6932.050
901.1071.434

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.74132.772
216.21624.182
313.90821.416
412.79719.392
511.70017.964
610.91516.218
710.26615.075
89.71814.062
99.18813.118
108.88012.446
118.51811.912
128.23011.347
137.91010.930
147.62910.520
157.34210.088
167.1359.758
176.9679.376
186.7329.000
196.6088.681
206.4358.437
216.2588.205
226.1197.942
235.9867.777
245.8297.524
255.6757.373
265.5497.243
275.3977.043
285.2696.887
295.1266.717
305.0316.525
314.9296.357
324.7956.183
334.7046.051
344.5915.928
354.5075.750
364.3935.616
374.3045.481
384.2335.358
394.1625.257
404.0675.126
413.9845.001
423.9034.911
433.8164.834
443.7494.731
453.6824.640
463.6164.536
473.5554.447
483.4924.329
493.4194.239
503.3444.145
513.2704.061
523.2093.978
533.1573.878
543.0923.789
553.0033.692
562.9503.585
572.8973.520
582.8423.454
592.7833.385
602.7293.291
612.6743.202
622.6333.138
632.5903.077
642.5323.004
652.4812.947
662.4252.890
672.3682.836
682.3212.767
692.2662.696
702.2072.645
712.1642.577
722.1112.522
732.0662.459
742.0132.402
751.9652.340
761.9012.285
771.8552.225
781.7982.171
791.7522.118
801.6932.050
811.6371.987
821.5761.927
831.5121.859
841.4381.803
851.3821.754
861.3201.689
871.2681.622
881.2111.569
891.1571.505
901.1071.434
911.0441.368
920.9731.290
930.9071.208
940.8251.107
950.7391.035
960.6640.952
970.5640.831
980.4510.725
990.3110.599


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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