Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Product list for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge



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Exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge ( Jan 2010 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1031.017
2023.118
3018.136
4013.799
5010.450
607.464
705.280
803.470
901.895

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
151.330
244.855
342.312
440.219
538.667
636.502
734.974
833.540
932.103
1031.017
1130.112
1229.108
1328.342
1427.570
1526.717
1626.036
1725.236
1824.417
1923.692
2023.118
2122.561
2221.939
2321.502
2420.863
2520.462
2620.115
2719.587
2819.166
2918.676
3018.136
3117.641
3217.137
3316.740
3416.348
3515.810
3615.381
3714.953
3814.554
3914.228
4013.799
4113.386
4213.081
4312.825
4412.475
4512.161
4611.812
4711.496
4811.087
4910.780
5010.450
5110.154
529.859
539.517
549.194
558.869
568.481
578.255
588.028
597.782
607.464
617.151
626.927
636.720
646.469
656.277
666.083
675.905
685.675
695.444
705.280
715.060
724.887
734.688
744.513
754.322
764.155
773.977
783.816
793.664
803.470
813.292
823.127
832.944
842.795
852.669
862.504
872.338
882.208
892.057
901.895
911.748
921.582
931.413
941.218
951.086
960.941
970.744
980.589
990.425


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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