Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Product list for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.0132.340
Median5.0674.145
Mean6.5145.998
75% Quartile8.4437.371
Interquartile Range5.4305.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.68132.772
222.03124.182
320.01021.416
418.05019.392
516.64317.964
615.67216.218
714.76015.075
813.99414.062
913.48413.118
1012.91112.446
1112.36111.912
1211.93111.347
1311.58410.930
1411.28110.520
1510.91410.088
1610.5459.758
1710.2399.376
189.9419.000
199.6988.681
209.4758.437
219.2818.205
229.0307.942
238.7957.777
248.6157.524
258.4457.373
268.2837.243
278.0797.043
287.8986.887
297.7736.717
307.6166.525
317.4066.357
327.2556.183
337.0796.051
346.9145.928
356.7465.750
366.5925.616
376.4775.481
386.3505.358
396.2255.257
406.0795.126
415.9775.001
425.8594.911
435.7414.834
445.6414.731
455.5374.640
465.4274.536
475.3504.447
485.2564.329
495.1584.239
505.0674.145
514.9894.061
524.8893.978
534.7723.878
544.6753.789
554.5883.692
564.4713.585
574.3923.520
584.3043.454
594.2083.385
604.1223.291
614.0593.202
623.9923.138
633.9173.077
643.8413.004
653.7722.947
663.7052.890
673.6192.836
683.5492.767
693.4772.696
703.3932.645
713.3182.577
723.2332.522
733.1622.459
743.0832.402
753.0132.340
762.9482.285
772.8992.225
782.8202.171
792.7512.118
802.6622.050
812.5571.987
822.4491.927
832.3811.859
842.2721.803
852.1811.754
862.1181.689
872.0331.622
881.9311.569
891.8511.505
901.7601.434
911.6841.368
921.5931.290
931.4871.208
941.3741.107
951.2581.035
961.1160.952
970.9870.831
980.8560.725
990.5930.599


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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