Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Product list for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.1791.755
Median4.5463.027
Mean5.1244.240
75% Quartile6.4435.243
Interquartile Range3.2643.488

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
114.44921.853
212.42616.320
311.50014.546
410.83213.214
510.36012.257
69.89711.140
79.52110.384
89.1429.712
98.8629.090
108.5708.643
118.4158.287
128.2517.914
138.0277.636
147.8527.349
157.6717.069
167.5536.852
177.4236.582
187.2956.336
197.1056.126
206.9605.963
216.8575.803
226.7335.619
236.6265.515
246.5245.347
256.4475.244
266.3245.156
276.2605.019
286.1514.913
296.0484.798
305.9534.667
315.8694.552
325.7754.433
335.7164.343
345.6194.259
355.5474.137
365.4764.045
375.3973.951
385.3283.867
395.2613.797
405.2063.707
415.1343.621
425.0823.559
435.0093.505
444.9253.434
454.8603.371
464.7803.299
474.7223.237
484.6773.155
494.6083.093
504.5463.027
514.4912.968
524.4292.911
534.3762.841
544.3172.779
554.2532.711
564.1872.636
574.1332.591
584.0902.544
594.0362.496
603.9802.429
613.9292.367
623.8902.321
633.8332.278
643.7822.227
653.7302.187
663.6722.146
673.6192.108
683.5632.059
693.5112.009
703.4621.973
713.4011.924
723.3471.885
733.2851.840
743.2391.799
753.1781.755
763.1311.716
773.0741.673
783.0141.634
792.9581.596
802.8871.547
812.8321.502
822.7731.458
832.7041.409
842.6441.369
852.5901.333
862.5291.286
872.4741.238
882.4031.199
892.3291.152
902.2341.100
912.1681.052
922.0980.995
932.0320.934
941.9430.860
951.8400.806
961.7210.745
971.6010.654
981.4090.574
991.1830.479


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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