Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Product list for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.5941.396
Median8.2082.436
Mean9.0803.352
75% Quartile11.5334.242
Interquartile Range5.9392.846

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.69815.727
222.72512.392
320.82611.205
419.44610.299
518.2349.640
617.3288.812
716.6198.256
816.1177.754
915.6017.280
1015.1936.938
1114.8016.663
1214.4976.371
1314.1916.153
1413.8835.937
1513.6505.709
1613.4015.534
1713.1145.330
1812.8965.128
1912.6894.956
2012.4764.824
2112.2484.698
2212.0844.555
2311.9084.464
2411.6914.326
2511.5334.243
2611.3624.172
2711.1994.061
2811.0503.975
2910.8853.882
3010.7463.775
3110.6073.682
3210.4843.585
3310.3113.511
3410.1703.442
3510.0283.343
369.8743.268
379.7243.192
389.6203.123
399.4793.066
409.3292.992
419.2252.922
429.1252.871
439.0142.827
448.8882.769
458.7702.717
468.6712.658
478.5432.608
488.4212.541
498.3232.489
508.2082.436
518.0812.388
527.9802.341
537.8772.283
547.7872.233
557.6482.177
567.5272.116
577.4312.078
587.3452.041
597.2292.001
607.1481.946
617.0201.896
626.9161.858
636.8171.823
646.7051.781
656.5921.748
666.5351.715
676.4311.684
686.3241.644
696.2151.603
706.1021.574
716.0001.534
725.9091.502
735.8181.465
745.6991.432
755.5931.396
765.4501.364
775.3571.329
785.2421.297
795.1501.267
805.0481.227
814.9181.190
824.8081.155
834.6761.116
844.5781.083
854.4741.054
864.3491.016
874.2230.976
884.0780.945
893.9030.907
903.7480.865
913.6070.826
923.4570.781
933.3220.732
943.1510.672
953.0000.630
962.7650.580
972.4500.508
982.1870.444
991.7640.369


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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