Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Probability distribution for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge ( Feb 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile4.299
Median10.865
Mean14.972
75% Quartile22.201
Interquartile Range17.902

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.984
250.468
347.518
445.088
543.286
640.774
739.001
837.337
935.670
1034.411
1133.361
1232.197
1331.309
1430.415
1529.426
1628.638
1727.713
1826.765
1925.927
2025.264
2124.621
2223.903
2323.399
2422.663
2522.201
2621.803
2721.195
2820.711
2920.149
3019.530
3118.964
3218.389
3317.935
3417.488
3516.877
3616.389
3715.903
3815.452
3915.083
4014.600
4114.135
4213.793
4313.506
4413.113
4512.763
4612.373
4712.022
4811.569
4911.229
5010.865
5110.538
5210.214
539.839
549.486
559.132
568.711
578.465
588.221
597.955
607.613
617.278
627.038
636.818
646.551
656.347
666.142
675.953
685.712
695.468
705.297
715.066
724.886
734.678
744.496
754.298
764.126
773.942
783.776
793.620
803.421
813.239
823.071
832.885
842.734
852.606
862.438
872.271
882.141
891.990
901.827
911.682
921.517
931.350
941.158
951.028
960.887
970.696
980.547
990.390


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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