Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


Return to catchment list
Product list for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
May4.1062.5582.8030.1232.6253.159
May-Jun7.9637.6906.1880.3824.90354.758
May-Jul10.29912.07716.8800.5036.30763.177

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1024.97822.319
2018.00514.135
3013.98610.414
4011.0347.805
508.8566.053
606.9984.589
705.5053.532
804.0092.602
902.4931.693

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.12163.491
241.76046.806
336.52041.132
434.11136.918
531.95233.920
630.16230.241
728.90927.832
827.64625.700
926.49223.721
1024.97822.319
1123.74121.209
1222.95720.040
1322.15919.180
1421.41718.339
1520.87417.456
1620.33416.787
1719.66516.014
1819.00315.257
1918.45714.620
2018.00514.135
2117.53113.675
2217.03713.157
2316.57612.832
2416.12312.339
2515.78512.044
2615.38211.792
2714.99611.404
2814.60511.105
2914.22710.779
3013.98610.414
3113.59110.094
3213.2539.765
3312.9359.516
3412.6419.286
3512.3538.954
3612.0758.706
3711.7658.455
3811.5288.230
3911.2768.044
4011.0347.805
4110.8157.578
4210.5657.416
4310.3397.276
4410.1107.091
459.9036.928
469.6476.742
479.4556.585
489.2166.376
499.0336.217
508.8566.053
518.6355.905
528.4215.762
538.2315.588
548.0545.435
557.8855.268
567.7035.086
577.5054.976
587.3474.865
597.1564.748
606.9984.589
616.8304.442
626.6854.335
636.5374.234
646.3894.115
656.2394.021
666.1093.927
675.9513.840
685.8043.727
695.6653.613
705.5053.532
715.3923.422
725.2483.336
735.1043.235
744.9393.146
754.7893.049
764.6082.963
774.4562.870
784.3042.785
794.1672.705
804.0092.602
813.8862.505
823.7372.415
833.5602.313
843.3992.229
853.2592.157
863.1022.061
872.9431.964
882.7991.886
892.6531.794
902.4931.693
912.2951.600
922.1091.491
931.9461.378
941.7121.241
951.5351.145
961.3471.036
971.0860.879
980.7990.746
990.4350.594


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence