Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


Return to catchment list
Product list for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Sep1.0400.7221.6200.0990.6110.643
Sep-Oct2.1891.0702.7000.1522.09310.990
Sep-Nov3.5151.4773.5760.2093.06213.744

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.4027.360
208.1295.090
306.7243.953
405.6783.103
504.8022.500
604.1191.972
703.4171.572
802.7161.204
901.9550.822

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
119.19116.186
215.97612.957
314.40611.774
413.41210.858
512.71610.184
612.0409.329
711.5928.750
811.1958.224
910.7397.723
1010.4027.360
1110.1247.068
129.8406.755
139.5456.522
149.3196.291
159.1166.046
168.9065.857
178.6725.637
188.4865.419
198.2975.233
208.1295.090
217.9494.954
227.7944.799
237.6314.701
247.4764.551
257.3294.461
267.2324.384
277.0994.264
286.9494.170
296.8594.068
306.7243.953
316.5983.851
326.4943.746
336.4123.666
346.3083.591
356.1873.483
366.0603.402
375.9713.319
385.8693.245
395.7713.182
405.6783.103
415.5723.026
425.4692.971
435.3972.924
445.2972.861
455.2302.805
465.1482.741
475.0652.686
484.9672.613
494.8912.558
504.8022.500
514.7132.448
524.6542.397
534.5652.335
544.4952.280
554.4092.220
564.3492.154
574.2972.114
584.2472.074
594.1962.031
604.1191.972
614.0301.918
623.9551.878
633.8811.840
643.8231.795
653.7591.760
663.6911.724
673.6141.691
683.5501.648
693.4911.604
703.4171.572
713.3501.530
723.2851.496
733.2191.457
743.1591.422
753.0971.383
763.0281.349
772.9661.312
782.8721.278
792.7981.246
802.7161.204
812.6381.164
822.5641.127
832.4981.085
842.4211.050
852.3331.020
862.2660.980
872.1740.939
882.0960.905
892.0250.866
901.9550.822
911.8760.781
921.7730.733
931.6720.682
941.5860.620
951.4590.576
961.3140.525
971.2000.450
981.0290.385
990.8200.308


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence