Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Nov1.3260.4070.8760.0570.9692.754
Nov-Dec4.1721.1721.5280.2333.95521.111
Nov-Jan8.56411.7432.0270.28514.12352.350

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1016.81916.749
2012.26810.584
309.4857.797
407.5915.844
506.1804.530
605.0163.430
703.9692.633
803.0301.929
902.0281.239

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
135.62050.098
228.86935.975
325.97331.380
423.73628.028
522.22025.673
620.73522.812
719.45020.956
818.41519.323
917.41717.814
1016.81916.749
1116.19715.908
1215.70115.025
1315.16614.376
1414.64713.742
1514.19213.078
1613.77412.574
1713.37111.994
1812.96011.426
1912.61610.948
2012.26810.584
2112.02010.239
2211.6219.851
2311.2459.607
2411.0259.238
2510.7139.018
2610.4328.829
2710.2198.539
289.9598.314
299.7018.071
309.4857.797
319.2667.558
329.0637.311
338.8717.125
348.6586.953
358.4916.705
368.2536.519
378.0906.331
387.9296.162
397.7636.023
407.5915.844
417.4455.674
427.2775.552
437.1485.447
446.9955.309
456.8205.186
466.7205.047
476.6064.929
486.4194.772
496.3064.653
506.1804.530
516.0344.419
525.9114.311
535.8144.181
545.6834.066
555.5713.940
565.4703.804
575.3623.721
585.2393.637
595.1283.549
605.0163.430
614.9173.319
624.7683.238
634.6683.162
644.5613.072
654.4443.002
664.3612.931
674.2702.865
684.1792.780
694.0642.694
703.9692.633
713.8862.550
723.7872.484
733.6872.408
743.6002.341
753.5122.268
763.4182.203
773.3242.132
783.2132.068
793.1322.008
803.0301.929
812.9331.856
822.8361.787
832.7281.710
842.6301.647
852.5321.592
862.4461.519
872.3561.445
882.2561.386
892.1441.316
902.0281.239
911.9311.168
921.8071.085
931.6790.998
941.5440.894
951.4280.820
961.2510.736
971.1110.616
980.9190.514
990.7020.396


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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