Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2001) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Dec2.9000.7650.6510.3092.98618.357
Dec-Jan7.21911.3361.1500.37713.15449.596
Dec-Feb12.78531.5131.6080.49018.87752.667

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.63227.015
2020.33118.758
3015.34014.030
4011.82810.325
509.2167.728
607.1175.564
705.3094.034
803.7012.762
902.1021.615

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
157.02649.848
247.88942.477
342.62139.596
438.63437.232
535.87235.485
633.62733.061
731.88431.361
830.65329.776
929.62228.198
1028.63227.015
1127.62126.036
1226.60224.957
1325.30724.141
1424.42123.324
1523.55022.429
1622.87021.721
1722.08220.897
1821.34720.062
1920.81219.331
2020.33118.758
2119.69418.207
2219.04517.598
2318.44017.174
2417.97716.561
2517.46316.180
2617.06015.853
2716.68015.358
2816.19114.969
2915.74914.520
3015.34014.030
3114.99113.587
3214.58613.142
3314.14412.794
3413.81712.455
3513.43211.994
3613.06511.630
3712.75811.272
3812.44810.942
3912.13910.674
4011.82810.325
4111.5299.993
4211.2329.750
4310.9499.548
4410.6519.273
4510.4129.028
4610.1398.758
479.8838.517
489.6698.206
499.4357.974
509.2167.728
518.9737.507
528.7847.289
538.5957.039
548.3816.803
558.1786.568
567.9646.289
577.7746.127
587.5475.965
597.2975.790
607.1175.564
616.9075.344
626.6965.186
636.4875.040
646.3194.865
656.1154.730
665.9544.595
675.8154.470
685.6044.310
695.4444.148
705.3094.034
715.1253.880
724.9393.759
734.7693.620
744.5933.497
754.3943.363
764.2663.246
774.1183.121
783.9603.007
793.8292.900
803.7012.762
813.4902.635
823.2982.517
833.1432.386
842.9812.278
852.8342.187
862.6852.066
872.5351.944
882.4071.849
892.2821.736
902.1021.615
911.9161.504
921.7391.377
931.5471.247
941.3281.094
951.1620.989
960.9920.872
970.8010.709
980.5710.578
990.2520.434


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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