Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge


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Historical and exceedance probability for Running Ck at Dieckmans Bridge ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1965+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1967) (GL)
Apr4.7005.3072.2440.2102.8816.572
Apr-May8.7798.1103.3010.3335.6039.731
Apr-Jun12.62611.4954.0820.5927.91561.330

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1028.644
2018.094
3013.176
409.730
507.433
605.539
704.191
803.025
901.913

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.005
256.220
350.368
445.826
542.485
638.254
735.402
832.827
930.393
1028.644
1127.245
1225.760
1324.660
1423.578
1522.436
1621.567
1720.559
1819.568
1918.733
2018.094
2117.488
2216.804
2316.375
2415.724
2515.334
2615.001
2714.487
2814.091
2913.660
3013.176
3112.753
3212.317
3311.988
3411.684
3511.245
3610.917
3710.586
3810.290
3910.043
409.730
419.431
429.217
439.033
448.791
458.577
468.334
478.127
487.854
497.647
507.433
517.241
527.054
536.829
546.630
556.414
566.179
576.037
585.893
595.743
605.539
615.350
625.213
635.083
644.931
654.812
664.692
674.581
684.438
694.294
704.191
714.052
723.943
733.816
743.705
753.583
763.475
773.359
783.254
793.154
803.025
812.906
822.794
832.669
842.566
852.477
862.360
872.241
882.146
892.035
901.913
911.801
921.671
931.535
941.373
951.260
961.132
970.950
980.798
990.625


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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