Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.0624.193
202.9052.535
302.1401.581
401.4820.910
501.0410.531
600.6920.289
700.4370.160
800.2410.081
900.0910.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
17.2228.525
26.5147.144
35.9096.602
45.4516.156
55.1425.825
64.8595.362
74.6055.036
84.4354.730
94.2254.424
104.0624.193
113.9244.000
123.7833.786
133.6893.624
143.5413.461
153.4063.281
163.2773.138
173.1782.971
183.0882.801
192.9912.652
202.9052.535
212.7952.422
222.7242.298
232.6402.211
242.5732.086
252.5122.009
262.4251.943
272.3581.843
282.2981.766
292.2111.677
302.1401.581
312.0701.495
321.9871.410
331.9151.344
341.8361.281
351.7681.197
361.7141.132
371.6501.069
381.5941.013
391.5300.967
401.4820.910
411.4270.857
421.3780.818
431.3370.787
441.2890.745
451.2490.709
461.2160.670
471.1690.636
481.1260.594
491.0850.563
501.0410.531
511.0010.503
520.9650.476
530.9220.446
540.8860.419
550.8400.392
560.8080.362
570.7780.345
580.7520.328
590.7150.311
600.6920.289
610.6640.268
620.6390.254
630.6130.241
640.5890.226
650.5620.215
660.5410.203
670.5180.193
680.4920.181
690.4620.169
700.4370.160
710.4160.150
720.3950.141
730.3730.132
740.3560.124
750.3330.115
760.3140.108
770.2920.101
780.2720.094
790.2570.088
800.2410.081
810.2270.074
820.2110.068
830.1910.062
840.1780.057
850.1640.053
860.1490.048
870.1360.043
880.1210.039
890.1070.035
900.0910.031
910.0810.027
920.0700.023
930.0590.019
940.0490.015
950.0390.013
960.0270.010
970.0160.007
980.0070.005
990.0000.003


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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