Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
103.3025.073
202.1582.608
301.5261.628
401.1241.032
500.8300.685
600.6140.434
700.4410.276
800.2890.158
900.1450.063

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
18.32815.920
26.65312.072
35.92610.617
45.2989.457
54.7928.627
64.4737.521
74.1746.784
83.8146.129
93.5105.512
103.3025.073
113.1444.726
123.0014.361
132.8444.096
142.7283.842
152.6243.576
162.5213.373
172.4303.148
182.3442.929
192.2642.746
202.1582.608
212.0692.479
222.0062.342
231.9402.249
241.8682.119
251.8032.040
261.7421.974
271.6841.876
281.6411.802
291.5911.717
301.5261.628
311.4761.550
321.4351.473
331.3811.415
341.3331.359
351.3021.284
361.2611.227
371.2221.172
381.1821.122
391.1501.082
401.1241.032
411.0960.984
421.0540.950
431.0270.922
440.9920.885
450.9620.852
460.9340.816
470.9060.785
480.8840.745
490.8590.715
500.8300.685
510.8050.658
520.7810.631
530.7570.601
540.7350.574
550.7120.546
560.6920.514
570.6730.496
580.6530.478
590.6350.459
600.6140.434
610.5950.410
620.5790.393
630.5610.378
640.5430.360
650.5240.346
660.5080.332
670.4950.320
680.4750.304
690.4560.288
700.4410.276
710.4240.261
720.4080.250
730.3920.236
740.3820.225
750.3630.212
760.3480.202
770.3320.190
780.3170.180
790.3030.170
800.2890.158
810.2730.147
820.2590.137
830.2450.126
840.2300.117
850.2160.109
860.2070.099
870.1910.089
880.1750.082
890.1590.073
900.1450.063
910.1300.055
920.1160.045
930.1000.036
940.0830.025
950.0690.018
960.0530.010
970.0330.000
980.0140.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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