Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam



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Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Feb 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.01217.198
206.1139.743
304.3056.466
403.0964.321
502.2222.995
601.5601.984
701.0271.313
800.5870.781
900.1770.324

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.74246.116
220.86136.060
318.31232.239
416.65529.177
514.70726.967
613.12323.995
712.28921.986
811.47220.178
910.60818.447
1010.01217.198
119.50716.196
128.94015.128
138.40214.345
148.03213.585
157.69812.777
167.25412.157
176.92911.456
186.67610.770
196.38910.187
206.1139.743
215.8609.327
225.6418.877
235.4748.571
245.2988.137
255.1177.874
264.9577.651
274.7837.320
284.6337.065
294.5046.775
304.3056.466
314.1356.191
323.9465.921
333.8485.713
343.7295.513
353.6135.246
363.5125.039
373.4274.838
383.3094.655
393.2024.509
403.0964.321
412.9924.144
422.8994.016
432.8243.910
442.7243.768
452.6183.642
462.5463.505
472.4533.384
482.3653.230
492.2913.116
502.2222.995
512.1472.889
522.0702.784
531.9972.665
541.9472.554
551.8922.444
561.8212.314
571.7542.240
581.6822.166
591.6232.086
601.5601.984
611.5061.885
621.4531.815
631.3951.750
641.3381.673
651.2781.614
661.2291.554
671.1711.500
681.1281.431
691.0801.362
701.0271.313
710.9921.247
720.9501.196
730.9041.137
740.8501.085
750.8031.029
760.7600.981
770.7170.929
780.6800.882
790.6280.838
800.5870.781
810.5350.730
820.4820.682
830.4430.629
840.4090.586
850.3660.549
860.3250.501
870.2890.453
880.2520.416
890.2200.372
900.1770.324
910.1270.282
920.0890.233
930.0470.184
940.0060.126
950.0000.087
960.0000.044
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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