Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam



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Exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Mar 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1013.939
209.054
306.186
404.002
502.601
601.575
700.952
800.513
900.190

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
126.790
222.689
321.078
419.753
518.770
617.400
716.434
815.529
914.622
1013.939
1113.371
1212.741
1312.263
1411.782
1511.253
1610.832
1710.340
189.840
199.400
209.054
218.721
228.352
238.095
247.722
257.490
267.291
276.991
286.754
296.482
306.186
315.918
325.651
335.443
345.241
354.968
364.755
374.546
384.355
394.201
404.002
413.815
423.679
433.567
443.416
453.283
463.138
473.010
482.847
492.727
502.601
512.489
522.381
532.258
542.144
552.032
561.901
571.827
581.753
591.675
601.575
611.480
621.412
631.351
641.279
651.224
661.169
671.120
681.057
690.996
700.952
710.895
720.851
730.801
740.757
750.711
760.671
770.629
780.591
790.557
800.513
810.473
820.438
830.398
840.367
850.341
860.308
870.275
880.249
890.220
900.190
910.163
920.134
930.104
940.072
950.051
960.028
970.000
980.000
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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