Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.6790.148
Median1.2210.457
Mean1.6621.225
75% Quartile2.1631.301
Interquartile Range1.4841.153

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.77911.268
25.9388.200
35.3657.084
44.8346.220
54.5145.616
64.2134.835
74.0004.328
83.7913.888
93.6163.482
103.4573.197
113.3532.974
123.2272.742
133.1122.575
143.0112.416
152.9192.249
162.7962.124
172.7161.984
182.6351.849
192.5451.736
202.4891.651
212.4171.571
222.3511.487
232.2871.430
242.2261.350
252.1641.301
262.1081.261
272.0491.201
282.0151.154
291.9761.103
301.9281.047
311.8840.999
321.8320.951
331.7920.915
341.7560.880
351.7180.834
361.6760.798
371.6420.764
381.5950.733
391.5610.708
401.5320.676
411.4860.646
421.4530.625
431.4220.607
441.3920.584
451.3630.563
461.3350.540
471.3040.520
481.2730.495
491.2450.476
501.2210.457
511.1940.439
521.1700.422
531.1430.403
541.1180.385
551.0980.368
561.0770.347
571.0520.335
581.0280.323
591.0070.311
600.9870.295
610.9680.279
620.9500.268
630.9310.258
640.9040.246
650.8880.237
660.8670.228
670.8440.219
680.8250.209
690.8010.198
700.7770.191
710.7570.181
720.7380.173
730.7190.164
740.7010.156
750.6790.148
760.6560.141
770.6350.133
780.6190.126
790.5980.119
800.5790.111
810.5560.103
820.5340.096
830.5110.089
840.4930.082
850.4760.077
860.4570.070
870.4390.063
880.4200.058
890.3960.052
900.3790.045
910.3560.039
920.3320.032
930.3140.025
940.2860.018
950.2560.012
960.2240.006
970.1960.000
980.1630.000
990.1110.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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