Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.0490.859
Median2.9992.544
Mean5.5456.918
75% Quartile7.8217.350
Interquartile Range6.7726.491

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
128.70762.099
225.16346.086
322.69740.073
420.92635.401
519.56131.980
618.18227.691
717.13624.847
816.20322.324
915.53019.991
1014.60018.352
1113.87617.067
1213.29115.731
1312.70014.760
1411.95013.823
1511.49212.854
1610.97712.130
1710.61911.308
1810.24510.518
199.9129.865
209.5219.375
219.1838.918
228.8108.411
238.4518.097
248.1797.629
257.8237.353
267.4657.120
277.1796.766
286.9716.495
296.7526.207
306.4215.887
316.1875.612
325.9495.333
335.7075.126
345.4164.936
355.2504.667
365.0274.469
374.8244.272
384.6174.098
394.4023.955
404.2453.776
414.0923.607
423.9713.488
433.8263.386
443.7163.254
453.5983.138
463.4873.009
473.3432.900
483.2252.758
493.1192.652
502.9992.544
512.8812.448
522.7872.356
532.6942.246
542.6122.150
552.5462.048
562.4561.938
572.3451.873
582.2551.807
592.1581.739
602.0871.649
612.0111.566
621.9261.507
631.8451.452
641.7781.388
651.6831.338
661.6171.289
671.5351.243
681.4731.186
691.3971.128
701.3251.088
711.2631.035
721.2150.993
731.1540.945
741.0960.904
751.0490.859
760.9980.820
770.9460.779
780.8880.742
790.8260.707
800.7800.663
810.7170.623
820.6760.586
830.6310.546
840.5860.513
850.5420.486
860.5040.450
870.4630.414
880.3990.386
890.3560.354
900.3190.320
910.2750.289
920.2310.255
930.1930.220
940.1520.180
950.1120.153
960.0700.124
970.0270.086
980.0000.056
990.0000.024


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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