Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam



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Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Jan 2011 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.4501.035
Median17.0343.127
Mean18.6227.755
75% Quartile26.0018.994
Interquartile Range16.5517.958

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
152.62859.520
246.88246.461
343.49041.401
441.55937.368
539.69734.338
638.27830.424
737.32927.740
836.41925.291
935.55722.959
1034.70121.280
1133.88319.937
1233.13018.515
1332.28117.466
1431.65016.440
1530.98115.365
1630.36214.553
1729.79513.620
1829.27012.714
1928.86111.959
2028.28611.388
2127.84210.852
2227.47910.255
2326.9249.884
2426.5429.327
2526.0038.998
2625.5668.718
2725.1218.293
2824.7207.967
2924.3517.619
3023.8717.231
3123.5446.898
3223.1706.558
3322.6616.306
3422.3376.074
3521.9675.745
3621.5355.502
3721.2165.260
3820.8405.046
3920.4974.871
4020.1704.649
4119.8414.441
4219.4904.294
4319.1114.169
4418.7804.006
4518.4613.863
4618.1263.703
4717.8553.569
4817.5623.393
4917.2603.262
5017.0343.127
5116.7213.008
5216.3812.894
5316.0812.758
5415.7942.640
5515.4822.512
5615.2032.376
5714.8322.295
5814.6232.214
5914.3642.130
6014.0602.017
6113.7981.915
6213.4591.841
6313.1541.772
6412.8081.693
6512.4831.631
6612.1731.569
6711.9131.513
6811.5731.442
6911.2401.370
7010.9271.320
7110.6231.254
7210.3801.202
7310.0931.143
749.7711.091
759.4461.035
769.1080.987
778.8040.936
788.5090.890
798.1650.847
807.8280.792
817.5770.742
827.2700.697
837.0120.646
846.7210.606
856.3460.571
866.0570.527
875.7020.482
885.4290.448
895.0980.408
904.7670.365
914.3880.327
924.0320.284
933.6220.241
943.2340.192
952.9170.159
962.5280.123
972.1260.075
981.6210.037
991.0610.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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