Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam



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Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Jan 2012 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.6411.035
Median7.6193.127
Mean9.8397.755
75% Quartile14.0188.994
Interquartile Range10.3787.958

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
136.96859.520
232.52546.461
330.03241.401
427.85537.368
526.15734.338
624.83630.424
723.92127.740
822.80125.291
921.94922.959
1021.32121.280
1120.62319.937
1219.96318.515
1319.30017.466
1418.77916.440
1518.27115.365
1617.63214.553
1717.20613.620
1816.73912.714
1916.34311.959
2015.93511.388
2115.53810.852
2215.06610.255
2314.7199.884
2414.3989.327
2514.0198.998
2613.7018.718
2713.2748.293
2812.9397.967
2912.6907.619
3012.3387.231
3112.0206.898
3211.6936.558
3311.4216.306
3411.0426.074
3510.7585.745
3610.5505.502
3710.3125.260
3810.0845.046
399.8534.871
409.6304.649
419.4124.441
429.1114.294
438.8924.169
448.6904.006
458.5283.863
468.3973.703
478.1573.569
487.9553.393
497.7863.262
507.6193.127
517.4173.008
527.2582.894
537.0862.758
546.9242.640
556.7472.512
566.5632.376
576.3392.295
586.1802.214
596.0502.130
605.8852.017
615.7141.915
625.5891.841
635.4371.772
645.2131.693
655.0761.631
664.9091.569
674.7481.513
684.6001.442
694.4421.370
704.3071.320
714.1831.254
724.0511.202
733.9321.143
743.7831.091
753.6401.035
763.5370.987
773.3380.936
783.2030.890
793.0530.847
802.8820.792
812.7640.742
822.6430.697
832.5040.646
842.3900.606
852.2610.571
862.1010.527
871.9780.482
881.8770.448
891.7500.408
901.6090.365
911.4790.327
921.3260.284
931.1500.241
940.9920.192
950.8560.159
960.7070.123
970.5510.075
980.3630.037
990.1830.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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