Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam



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Probability distribution for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Jan 2013 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile1.0031.035
Median2.6053.127
Mean4.2847.755
75% Quartile5.7128.994
Interquartile Range4.7097.958

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
123.57559.520
219.86346.461
317.11141.401
415.50437.368
514.31434.338
613.41430.424
712.53627.740
811.73225.291
911.06522.959
1010.42621.280
119.83319.937
129.37018.515
138.99917.466
148.60616.440
158.21315.365
167.93414.553
177.69713.620
187.40112.714
197.13311.959
206.83911.388
216.60410.852
226.34310.255
236.1189.884
245.9119.327
255.7148.998
265.4868.718
275.3168.293
285.1547.967
294.9827.619
304.8337.231
314.6766.898
324.5476.558
334.4306.306
344.3106.074
354.1505.745
364.0265.502
373.9125.260
383.7935.046
393.6664.871
403.5634.649
413.4684.441
423.3634.294
433.2804.169
443.1514.006
453.0703.863
462.9683.703
472.9003.569
482.8093.393
492.7063.262
502.6053.127
512.5253.008
522.4562.894
532.3822.758
542.3032.640
552.2292.512
562.1432.376
572.0782.295
582.0162.214
591.9352.130
601.8732.017
611.8221.915
621.7491.841
631.6851.772
641.6321.693
651.5771.631
661.5221.569
671.4671.513
681.4201.442
691.3621.370
701.3091.320
711.2601.254
721.1961.202
731.1341.143
741.0631.091
751.0031.035
760.9490.987
770.8910.936
780.8560.890
790.8070.847
800.7610.792
810.7130.742
820.6620.697
830.6090.646
840.5630.606
850.5300.571
860.4840.527
870.4380.482
880.3850.448
890.3320.408
900.2710.365
910.2270.327
920.1840.284
930.1270.241
940.0670.192
950.0280.159
960.0000.123
970.0000.075
980.0000.037
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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