Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam( Oct 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2002) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2010) (GL)
Oct0.4940.1150.0000.4764.096
Oct-Nov1.1080.2180.0060.8655.445
Oct-Dec2.4530.3070.0072.54718.706

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.876
203.839
302.202
401.273
500.780
600.458
700.275
800.152
900.066

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
121.694
217.153
315.381
413.932
512.867
611.400
710.385
89.452
98.542
107.876
117.336
126.756
136.329
145.914
155.472
165.134
174.754
184.384
194.074
203.839
213.621
223.388
233.231
243.012
252.880
262.770
272.608
282.485
292.347
302.202
312.075
321.953
331.860
341.772
351.656
361.568
371.483
381.408
391.348
401.273
411.203
421.153
431.113
441.059
451.012
460.961
470.917
480.862
490.822
500.780
510.744
520.709
530.669
540.633
550.598
560.557
570.534
580.512
590.488
600.458
610.429
620.409
630.391
640.370
650.354
660.338
670.323
680.305
690.287
700.275
710.259
720.246
730.232
740.220
750.207
760.196
770.184
780.174
790.164
800.152
810.142
820.132
830.121
840.113
850.106
860.097
870.088
880.082
890.074
900.066
910.059
920.052
930.044
940.036
950.031
960.026
970.019
980.014
990.009


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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