Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


Return to catchment list
Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam( Jul 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1988) (GL)
Jul0.7212.0150.0000.5348.327
Jul-Aug1.0042.4320.0000.7629.611
Jul-Sep1.2422.7620.0000.89511.309

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
100.6043.197
200.4001.651
300.2921.047
400.2170.676
500.1650.457
600.1250.295
700.0860.191
800.0510.111
900.0200.045

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
11.61411.268
21.2048.200
31.0277.084
40.9016.220
50.8275.616
60.7614.835
70.7114.328
80.6693.888
90.6283.482
100.6043.197
110.5722.974
120.5412.742
130.5182.575
140.4922.416
150.4762.249
160.4592.124
170.4431.984
180.4301.849
190.4131.736
200.4001.651
210.3861.571
220.3761.487
230.3661.430
240.3561.350
250.3441.301
260.3341.261
270.3211.201
280.3111.154
290.3021.103
300.2921.047
310.2840.999
320.2750.951
330.2660.915
340.2580.880
350.2490.834
360.2420.798
370.2350.764
380.2300.733
390.2230.708
400.2170.676
410.2080.646
420.2030.625
430.1990.607
440.1950.584
450.1880.563
460.1840.540
470.1800.520
480.1750.495
490.1700.476
500.1650.457
510.1610.439
520.1560.422
530.1510.403
540.1470.385
550.1440.368
560.1400.347
570.1360.335
580.1330.323
590.1290.311
600.1250.295
610.1210.279
620.1180.268
630.1140.258
640.1110.246
650.1070.237
660.1030.228
670.0990.219
680.0940.209
690.0900.198
700.0860.191
710.0830.181
720.0790.173
730.0760.164
740.0730.156
750.0690.148
760.0670.141
770.0630.133
780.0590.126
790.0550.119
800.0510.111
810.0480.103
820.0440.096
830.0410.089
840.0380.082
850.0350.077
860.0320.070
870.0290.063
880.0260.058
890.0230.052
900.0200.045
910.0160.039
920.0120.032
930.0090.025
940.0050.018
950.0000.012
960.0000.006
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence