Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam( Aug 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1972) (GL)
Aug0.2830.4170.0050.2280.072
Aug-Sep0.5200.7470.0070.3610.086
Aug-Oct1.0140.8610.0070.8375.256

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
101.6482.990
200.9751.842
300.5941.180
400.3700.705
500.2280.427
600.1400.242
700.0830.139
800.0410.073
900.0110.030

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
13.5426.002
22.9895.042
32.7284.665
42.4564.354
52.2864.124
62.1243.803
71.9443.576
81.8383.364
91.7353.151
101.6482.990
111.5702.857
121.4762.709
131.3992.596
141.3102.483
151.2422.358
161.1822.259
171.1302.144
181.0852.026
191.0191.923
200.9751.842
210.9241.764
220.8881.678
230.8331.618
240.8001.532
250.7691.478
260.7341.432
270.6931.363
280.6541.309
290.6211.247
300.5941.180
310.5641.120
320.5371.060
330.5131.014
340.4960.970
350.4740.910
360.4530.864
370.4350.819
380.4150.779
390.3980.746
400.3700.705
410.3500.666
420.3350.639
430.3230.616
440.3090.585
450.2970.559
460.2810.530
470.2660.505
480.2530.473
490.2400.451
500.2280.427
510.2160.406
520.2050.385
530.1960.363
540.1880.342
550.1790.322
560.1700.298
570.1600.285
580.1540.272
590.1480.259
600.1400.242
610.1330.225
620.1260.214
630.1190.204
640.1150.192
650.1100.183
660.1040.174
670.0980.166
680.0930.156
690.0880.146
700.0830.139
710.0780.130
720.0740.123
730.0700.116
740.0650.109
750.0600.102
760.0550.096
770.0520.090
780.0480.084
790.0440.079
800.0410.073
810.0370.068
820.0330.063
830.0290.057
840.0260.053
850.0240.049
860.0220.045
870.0190.040
880.0160.037
890.0130.033
900.0110.030
910.0080.026
920.0060.023
930.0040.019
940.0020.015
950.0000.013
960.0000.011
970.0000.007
980.0000.005
990.0000.003


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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