Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
May1.4170.5810.4510.0000.7328.681
May-Jun2.2542.1661.9490.0001.23016.358
May-Jul2.9603.5043.9650.0001.57818.034

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
108.5408.985
206.1304.856
304.4162.946
403.1681.767
502.1831.108
601.4250.659
700.8600.396
800.4430.213
900.1420.079

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
115.06121.634
213.17517.529
312.25815.923
411.43314.606
510.77813.634
610.31312.290
79.81711.351
89.40610.481
99.0169.622
108.5408.985
118.2338.463
127.9797.895
137.6997.470
147.4777.052
157.2306.601
166.9966.250
176.7325.850
186.4785.453
196.3255.115
206.1304.856
215.9514.612
225.7664.348
235.6024.168
245.3883.915
255.2003.760
265.0153.630
274.8663.438
284.7203.290
294.5693.123
304.4162.946
314.2812.790
324.1772.637
334.0382.521
343.9042.410
353.7742.263
363.6232.150
373.5042.041
383.3871.944
393.2691.866
403.1681.767
413.0641.675
422.9561.610
432.8491.556
442.7701.484
452.6691.421
462.5581.354
472.4251.294
482.3331.219
492.2501.165
502.1831.108
512.1141.058
522.0151.010
531.9400.955
541.8770.905
551.8020.856
561.7250.800
571.6430.767
581.5570.736
591.4920.702
601.4250.659
611.3580.618
621.3040.590
631.2510.564
641.1950.533
651.1240.510
661.0680.487
671.0210.466
680.9660.440
690.9150.414
700.8600.396
710.8120.372
720.7600.353
730.7200.332
740.6770.314
750.6380.295
760.6030.278
770.5650.261
780.5250.245
790.4840.231
800.4430.213
810.4060.196
820.3670.182
830.3410.165
840.3050.152
850.2700.142
860.2370.128
870.2130.114
880.1910.104
890.1690.092
900.1420.079
910.1190.068
920.1040.056
930.0820.044
940.0580.031
950.0360.022
960.0180.013
970.0020.001
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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