Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1972) (GL)
Aug0.2800.3490.4170.0050.1910.072
Aug-Sep0.5150.4760.7470.0070.2940.086
Aug-Oct1.0180.5470.8610.0070.7605.256

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
104.0172.990
203.2091.842
302.6651.180
402.2000.705
501.7770.427
601.3880.242
700.9860.139
800.5990.073
900.2530.030

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
16.0536.002
25.5885.042
35.2264.665
44.9464.354
54.6984.124
64.5453.803
74.3913.576
84.2293.364
94.1033.151
104.0172.990
113.9352.857
123.8372.709
133.7442.596
143.6822.483
153.6022.358
163.5162.259
173.4322.144
183.3572.026
193.2821.923
203.2091.842
213.1331.764
223.0801.678
233.0281.618
242.9681.532
252.9201.478
262.8771.432
272.8181.363
282.7561.309
292.7131.247
302.6651.180
312.6201.120
322.5661.060
332.5181.014
342.4700.970
352.4190.910
362.3700.864
372.3180.819
382.2780.779
392.2330.746
402.2000.705
412.1480.666
422.1090.639
432.0740.616
442.0320.585
451.9880.559
461.9470.530
471.9070.505
481.8570.473
491.8220.451
501.7770.427
511.7450.406
521.6940.385
531.6520.363
541.6130.342
551.5640.322
561.5220.298
571.4870.285
581.4540.272
591.4200.259
601.3880.242
611.3440.225
621.3050.214
631.2760.204
641.2340.192
651.1890.183
661.1530.174
671.1070.166
681.0660.156
691.0270.146
700.9860.139
710.9390.130
720.9000.123
730.8520.116
740.8100.109
750.7780.102
760.7410.096
770.7040.090
780.6680.084
790.6300.079
800.5990.073
810.5610.068
820.5200.063
830.4760.057
840.4400.053
850.4090.049
860.3720.045
870.3470.040
880.3140.037
890.2870.033
900.2530.030
910.2280.026
920.1950.023
930.1640.019
940.1400.015
950.1180.013
960.0960.011
970.0720.007
980.0470.005
990.0160.003


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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