Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Product list for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jan2.8699.7960.0690.0004.82113.579
Jan-Feb5.88113.4900.1050.0006.55733.622
Jan-Mar7.90118.7702.2470.0008.16548.690

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.04021.280
208.09911.388
305.7947.231
404.3024.649
503.2063.127
602.3152.017
701.6601.320
801.0000.792
900.4130.365

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
125.88459.520
221.81446.461
318.96641.401
417.42737.368
516.09334.338
615.16030.424
714.32027.740
813.52725.291
912.63622.959
1012.04021.280
1111.41219.937
1210.87018.515
1310.46117.466
149.97816.440
159.57815.365
169.25114.553
178.94113.620
188.63012.714
198.36411.959
208.09911.388
217.84910.852
227.57010.255
237.2309.884
247.0229.327
256.7458.998
266.5608.718
276.3408.293
286.0987.967
295.9157.619
305.7947.231
315.6296.898
325.4646.558
335.2986.306
345.1346.074
354.9545.745
364.8245.502
374.6725.260
384.5395.046
394.4164.871
404.3024.649
414.1984.441
424.0544.294
433.9344.169
443.8294.006
453.7413.863
463.6343.703
473.5463.569
483.4253.393
493.3093.262
503.2063.127
513.1083.008
523.0132.894
532.9272.758
542.8442.640
552.7572.512
562.6602.376
572.5822.295
582.4902.214
592.4012.130
602.3152.017
612.2531.915
622.1871.841
632.1001.772
642.0361.693
651.9721.631
661.8981.569
671.8401.513
681.7771.442
691.7151.370
701.6601.320
711.6081.254
721.5331.202
731.4441.143
741.3831.091
751.2971.035
761.2330.987
771.1570.936
781.1000.890
791.0550.847
801.0000.792
810.9480.742
820.8920.697
830.8200.646
840.7650.606
850.7110.571
860.6540.527
870.6140.482
880.5650.448
890.4910.408
900.4130.365
910.3570.327
920.3070.284
930.2450.241
940.1750.192
950.1160.159
960.0560.123
970.0000.075
980.0000.037
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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