Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1988) (GL)
Apr1.7560.8960.2800.0000.60119.987
Apr-May3.1511.3470.3880.0001.35722.048
Apr-Jun4.0032.8460.4540.0001.98227.408

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1012.114
206.161
303.621
402.128
501.316
600.774
700.460
800.245
900.090

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
131.703
225.290
322.786
420.737
519.229
617.149
715.706
814.376
913.073
1012.114
1111.335
1210.493
139.870
149.261
158.610
168.109
177.542
186.987
196.517
206.161
215.828
225.471
235.229
244.890
254.685
264.514
274.261
284.067
293.850
303.621
313.420
323.225
333.076
342.935
352.749
362.607
372.470
382.348
392.251
402.128
412.014
421.932
431.866
441.777
451.700
461.617
471.544
481.452
491.386
501.316
511.256
521.197
531.131
541.070
551.011
560.942
570.903
580.865
590.825
600.774
610.725
620.690
630.660
640.623
650.595
660.568
670.543
680.512
690.481
700.460
710.431
720.410
730.385
740.364
750.341
760.321
770.301
780.283
790.266
800.245
810.226
820.208
830.190
840.175
850.162
860.146
870.130
880.118
890.105
900.090
910.078
920.064
930.050
940.035
950.025
960.015
970.002
980.000
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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