Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( May 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1983) (GL)
May1.3950.4510.1080.0000.7568.681
May-Jun2.2471.9490.1740.0001.38116.358
May-Jul2.9853.9650.2250.0001.91518.034

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
107.0098.985
204.6644.856
303.1382.946
402.1031.767
501.3591.108
600.8580.659
700.4870.396
800.2370.213
900.0540.079

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
113.21421.634
211.68617.529
310.62815.923
49.92814.606
59.20513.634
68.72212.290
78.25811.351
87.79310.481
97.4569.622
107.0098.985
116.6918.463
126.4627.895
136.1697.470
145.9587.052
155.7416.601
165.5366.250
175.2575.850
185.0295.453
194.8435.115
204.6644.856
214.4644.612
224.3184.348
234.1434.168
243.9583.915
253.8113.760
263.6393.630
273.5133.438
283.3983.290
293.2613.123
303.1382.946
313.0132.790
322.9092.637
332.7942.521
342.6662.410
352.5622.263
362.4322.150
372.3442.041
382.2471.944
392.1711.866
402.1031.767
412.0131.675
421.9241.610
431.8441.556
441.7691.484
451.6911.421
461.6121.354
471.5381.294
481.4861.219
491.4201.165
501.3591.108
511.3041.058
521.2591.010
531.2030.955
541.1550.905
551.0950.856
561.0330.800
570.9820.767
580.9370.736
590.8950.702
600.8580.659
610.8180.618
620.7670.590
630.7260.564
640.6890.533
650.6560.510
660.6240.487
670.5900.466
680.5560.440
690.5200.414
700.4870.396
710.4610.372
720.4330.353
730.4070.332
740.3800.314
750.3560.295
760.3270.278
770.3070.261
780.2860.245
790.2620.231
800.2370.213
810.2170.196
820.1940.182
830.1730.165
840.1550.152
850.1370.142
860.1180.128
870.0990.114
880.0820.104
890.0690.092
900.0540.079
910.0450.068
920.0340.056
930.0230.044
940.0110.031
950.0000.022
960.0000.013
970.0000.001
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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