Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam


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Historical and exceedance probability for Burnett Ck at U/S Maroon Dam ( Jan  )

Historical Observations
Average (1970+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (2007) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1976) (GL)
Jan2.2810.6730.3300.0001.85313.579
Jan-Feb5.3271.8012.6210.0002.73633.622
Jan-Mar7.2492.0405.2120.0003.35248.690

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
109.50021.280
206.16211.388
304.3427.231
403.1304.649
502.2533.127
601.6282.017
701.0881.320
800.6210.792
900.2040.365

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
122.23559.520
218.43346.461
316.00241.401
414.46837.368
513.50834.338
612.34930.424
711.38227.740
810.70425.291
910.14222.959
109.50021.280
119.00519.937
128.62318.515
138.35417.466
147.87916.440
157.57815.365
167.23414.553
176.93013.620
186.67112.714
196.40411.959
206.16211.388
215.96610.852
225.70010.255
235.4939.884
245.3219.327
255.1398.998
264.9708.718
274.7928.293
284.6317.967
294.4597.619
304.3427.231
314.2296.898
324.1066.558
333.9716.306
343.8056.074
353.6805.745
363.5715.502
373.4535.260
383.3555.046
393.2614.871
403.1304.649
413.0254.441
422.9324.294
432.8424.169
442.7504.006
452.6553.863
462.5623.703
472.4733.569
482.3823.393
492.3173.262
502.2533.127
512.1843.008
522.1302.894
532.0692.758
541.9982.640
551.9392.512
561.8782.376
571.8112.295
581.7422.214
591.6852.130
601.6282.017
611.5831.915
621.5321.841
631.4621.772
641.3921.693
651.3321.631
661.2851.569
671.2271.513
681.1731.442
691.1281.370
701.0881.320
711.0431.254
720.9991.202
730.9581.143
740.8991.091
750.8561.035
760.8110.987
770.7650.936
780.7120.890
790.6600.847
800.6210.792
810.5790.742
820.5410.697
830.5000.646
840.4550.606
850.4110.571
860.3570.527
870.3200.482
880.2780.448
890.2470.408
900.2040.365
910.1470.327
920.1000.284
930.0600.241
940.0190.192
950.0000.159
960.0000.123
970.0000.075
980.0000.037
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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