Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
102.6556.240
201.9994.331
301.6233.403
401.3672.713
501.1362.223
600.9671.790
700.7761.459
800.6181.149
900.4120.821

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
15.09715.616
24.37011.684
33.89310.413
43.5709.480
53.3278.819
63.1528.007
73.0087.474
82.8627.000
92.7606.557
102.6556.240
112.5755.988
122.4835.721
132.4215.523
142.3325.328
152.2845.122
162.2264.965
172.1734.782
182.1124.601
192.0544.448
201.9994.331
211.9504.219
221.9024.092
231.8584.011
241.8203.889
251.7883.816
261.7553.753
271.7203.655
281.6883.579
291.6553.496
301.6233.403
311.5933.320
321.5693.235
331.5473.170
341.5143.109
351.4913.022
361.4592.956
371.4362.889
381.4152.828
391.3902.778
401.3672.713
411.3442.651
421.3182.606
431.2932.568
441.2692.516
451.2472.471
461.2202.419
471.1992.374
481.1792.315
491.1602.270
501.1362.223
511.1172.180
521.1002.139
531.0842.088
541.0702.043
551.0511.994
561.0321.940
571.0161.907
580.9971.874
590.9841.838
600.9671.790
610.9511.745
620.9321.712
630.9081.681
640.8951.644
650.8741.614
660.8531.585
670.8351.557
680.8171.521
690.7961.485
700.7761.459
710.7601.423
720.7441.395
730.7271.362
740.7121.333
750.6941.300
760.6811.272
770.6631.240
780.6451.212
790.6311.184
800.6181.149
810.6041.115
820.5881.084
830.5711.048
840.5531.018
850.5270.992
860.5040.958
870.4800.922
880.4590.894
890.4410.859
900.4120.821
910.3870.786
920.3620.744
930.3330.699
940.2990.645
950.2700.605
960.2330.560
970.1940.492
980.1410.433
990.0720.363


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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