Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Product list for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge


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Exceedance probability for Canungra Creek at Main Road Bridge( Oct 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1010.185
206.812
305.221
404.066
503.261
602.565
702.043
801.564
901.072

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
127.913
220.296
317.883
416.129
514.898
613.398
712.421
811.557
910.755
1010.185
119.733
129.256
138.904
148.559
158.195
167.919
177.598
187.283
197.016
206.812
216.618
226.399
236.261
246.051
255.925
265.817
275.650
285.521
295.380
305.221
315.082
324.938
334.829
344.727
354.580
364.470
374.358
384.257
394.173
404.066
413.963
423.889
433.826
443.741
453.666
463.581
473.508
483.412
493.338
503.261
513.192
523.125
533.043
542.971
552.891
562.805
572.752
582.698
592.642
602.565
612.493
622.441
632.391
642.333
652.287
662.240
672.197
682.141
692.083
702.043
711.987
721.943
731.892
741.847
751.797
761.752
771.705
781.661
791.619
801.564
811.513
821.465
831.411
841.366
851.327
861.276
871.222
881.180
891.129
901.072
911.020
920.959
930.893
940.814
950.758
960.693
970.597
980.515
990.418


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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